Facebook Instagram Linkedin

By Walter Bell | Scarsports.com February 1, 2026

While the world is still catching its breath from Volkanovski’s featherweight title defense in Sydney last night, the UFC machine doesn’t stop. Next up, we return to Las Vegas on February 7 for a bantamweight banger at the Meta Apex (formerly the UFC Apex) that has “Fight of the Night” written all over it.

The main event features perennial world idol Mario Bautista (#9) looking to defend his ranking against the chaotic striking of Vinicius “Lok Dog” Oliveira (#11).

This isn’t just a ranking defense; it’s a clash of philosophies. Bautista is the suffocating grinder; Oliveira is the human highlight reel. Here is how the lines look and where the smart money should go.

The Odds

Odds provided by Oddstrader.com as of Feb 1.

The Matchup

Mario Bautista has quietly become one of the most reliable fighters at 135 pounds. He doesn’t have one-punch knockout power, but he has an endless gas tank and a grappling heavy game that breaks people. His win streak has been built on pressure—forcing opponents into deep waters and drowning them with pace and chain wrestling.

Vinicius Oliveira, on the other hand, is violence personified. Since his flying knee KO that broke the internet a couple of years ago, he has been headhunting. He is dangerous, unorthodox, and hits incredibly hard for the division. However, his takedown defense is still a question mark when tested by elite grapplers. He thrives in chaos, but struggles when forced to fight off his back foot.

The Prediction

The oddsmakers have opened with Bautista as a significant favorite (-218), and frankly, that line feels correct.

Oliveira has a “puncher’s chance” in the first round. If he can catch Bautista coming in, it’s lights out. But Bautista is smart. He won’t stand and trade in the pocket. Expect Bautista to use his Harvard graduate smarts to avoid the initial barrage, clinch up against the fence, and drag Oliveira to the canvas repeatedly.

By the third round, Oliveira’s explosiveness will likely fade under the weight of Bautista’s top pressure. This fight reminds me of Bautista’s earlier wins where he simply out-worked more dangerous strikers.

The Pick: Mario Bautista by Unanimous Decision. Value Play: If you want better odds, look at Bautista by Decision (likely around +120) rather than the moneyline.